First Frost/Freeze at Lake Anna

October 16, 2024

Now that we are solidly into the Fall Season, the next question is when will our first frost or freeze occur?

The term “frost” is used in describing the process of ice accretion or deposit upon things outside when the air temperature drops to or below freezing (32 deg F or 0 deg C).

Frost is basically the cousin of dew that we see on grass during the warmer seasons of the year. In order for dew or frost to form, specific atmospheric conditions need to be met. 1) There needs to be enough moisture in the lowest part of the atmosphere so condensation can occur. 2) The atmosphere needs to be able to cool enough for condensation to take place. 3) The presence of very light winds or calm conditions. Frost will not form when the wind is blowing due to the wind acting as a mixer and keeping the atmosphere from cooling enough so that water will condense. 4) The temperature at ground level needs to reach 32 degrees F.

Frost almost always forms at night with clear skies and calm winds, and can form when temperatures reach 36 degrees F. The reason for this is that the official height of a thermometer is six feet above ground level. A reading of 36-degree F at that level can result in a temperature on the grass of 32 degrees F.

A freeze is defined as when 32 degrees is measured at a weather station thermometer, which is located 6 feet above the ground.

We’ve had several days with lows in the 40s in early October, and we will some overnight lows in the 30s over the next several mornings.

Probabilities of frost and freezing temperatures for Louisa.

First Frost:

10% chance Sep 21^st, 50% chance Oct 3^rd, 70% chance Oct 7^th, 90% Oct 14^th

First Freeze:

10% chance Sep 29^th, 50% chance Oct 13^th, 70% chance Oct 19^th, 90% Oct 28^th.

The data shows that our chance for our frost and/or freeze is about this time in October. We almost always have frosts and a freeze by end of October.

The one caveat for the LKA area is the warm lake tends to push the date of each just a bit later along the immediate lakeshore (within a couple of hundred yards of the lake) due to the warmer water. Especially on the Hot side and down lake.

Michael Eckert

I grew up an Air Force Brat. Traveled the country and lived in Georgia, Maine, New York, Hawaii and Oklahoma.

I fell in love with the weather in Oklahoma. My father was transferred to Tinker AFB in 1973. While in Temporary housing (a mobile home, which is the standard in Oklahoma) I experienced my first severe thunderstorm with strong winds and hail the size of baseballs. The next day I was in the base library looking up books on weather. The rest is history.

I graduated from the University of Oklahoma in 1983 with a Bachelor’s Degree in Meteorology. The first two years we took Calculus, Differential equations, Physics, Chemistry and Computer science classes with the Engineering Students. It was a grind. My degree is actually from the College of Engineering. The last 2-3 year’s focus was on Meteorology including Observational networks (Satellite, Radar, Surface), Physics, Thermodynamics, Dynamics, Synoptic, Winter Weather, Severe Weather and Climatology.

My first job out of college was with a small forecasting company in Oklahoma City. I was immediately put on TV (OETA) and Radio (WKY) as their broadcast Meteorologist. After two years in broadcasting, I decided to pursue the National Weather Service route and got a position in Toledo, OH as an intern. After a couple of years, I was promoted to a forecaster position at the Cleveland Forecast office. I quickly moved into the Weather Preparedness position and was responsible for all the preparedness activities in the state of Ohio.

In 1992 I decided to pursue other forecast opportunities and moved to the Meteorological Operations Division of the National Meteorological Center in Washington, DC. This group is now called WPC (Weather Prediction Center). There I fine-tuned my forecasting of Synoptic Weather with my focus on Heavy Convective Rainfall and Winter Storms, under the supervision of Dr. Louis Uccellini. He has written several books on East Coast Winter storms. I was promoted to a Senior Branch Forecast position during my tenure at MOD. Part of my job was to teach weather classes at COMET (Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training).

In 2012 I was given the opportunity to start up a new weather support group with the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) in Warrenton, VA at the ATCSSC (Air Traffic Control System Command Center). The ATCSCC is where the FAA identifies solutions to air traffic inefficiencies in the NAS (National Air Space) for the CONUS (Continental United State). Weather impacts are the biggest impact on Aviation with yearly losses over 20 billion dollars. My job was to help lower these inefficiencies/costs by providing weather impact briefings and forecasts in order to keep the air planes moving as safely and efficiently as possible.

I retired in 2022 and now am running Lake Anna Weather, LLC.

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