[1-9-24] Weekly Weather & Storm Update

January 8, 2024

The big storm for Tuesday is on track.

Very warm for January with temperatures (Tuesday) rising from around 30 in the morning to around 60 during the evening. Rain developing around sunrise (there could be a brief period of freezing rain at the start, but it won’t last long) and continuing through the day. Heavy rainfall likely during the afternoon into the evening. Rainfall amounts around two inches likely. Some flooding possible late afternoon into the evening with a period of intense rainfall.

A flood watch has been posted for Orange County. This could be expanded for all of the area later today.

Light morning winds (Tuesday) increasing through the day with gusts into the 30s developing during the afternoon into the evening. A line of very intense showers, with possible thunderstorms during the evening, that could produce higher winds around 50 mph for an hour or two. This is highly dependent on whether the stronger winds just above the surface can mix down. Winds at 3-5 thousand feet above the surface will be 60-80 mph. The very wet soils combined with this period of strong gusts could bring down some branches and trees.

A wind advisory is in effect for Spotsylvania County. This could be expanded for all of the area later today.

For those flying on Tuesday, there will be significant delays, up and down the east coast. Turbulence will be severe.

This storm moves out quickly on Tuesday night.

Sunshine with breezy conditions and mild temperatures on Wednesday.

Thursday is the best day this week with abundant sunshine and light winds. Temperatures remain mild.

Next storm arriving Friday afternoon with more rain, but not as intense and not as windy as Tuesday’s storm.

Saturday looking mild, but breezy with sunshine.

Tight Lines and wear your PFD!

Michael Eckert

I grew up an Air Force Brat. Traveled the country and lived in Georgia, Maine, New York, Hawaii and Oklahoma.

I fell in love with the weather in Oklahoma. My father was transferred to Tinker AFB in 1973. While in Temporary housing (a mobile home, which is the standard in Oklahoma) I experienced my first severe thunderstorm with strong winds and hail the size of baseballs. The next day I was in the base library looking up books on weather. The rest is history.

I graduated from the University of Oklahoma in 1983 with a Bachelor’s Degree in Meteorology. The first two years we took Calculus, Differential equations, Physics, Chemistry and Computer science classes with the Engineering Students. It was a grind. My degree is actually from the College of Engineering. The last 2-3 year’s focus was on Meteorology including Observational networks (Satellite, Radar, Surface), Physics, Thermodynamics, Dynamics, Synoptic, Winter Weather, Severe Weather and Climatology.

My first job out of college was with a small forecasting company in Oklahoma City. I was immediately put on TV (OETA) and Radio (WKY) as their broadcast Meteorologist. After two years in broadcasting, I decided to pursue the National Weather Service route and got a position in Toledo, OH as an intern. After a couple of years, I was promoted to a forecaster position at the Cleveland Forecast office. I quickly moved into the Weather Preparedness position and was responsible for all the preparedness activities in the state of Ohio.

In 1992 I decided to pursue other forecast opportunities and moved to the Meteorological Operations Division of the National Meteorological Center in Washington, DC. This group is now called WPC (Weather Prediction Center). There I fine-tuned my forecasting of Synoptic Weather with my focus on Heavy Convective Rainfall and Winter Storms, under the supervision of Dr. Louis Uccellini. He has written several books on East Coast Winter storms. I was promoted to a Senior Branch Forecast position during my tenure at MOD. Part of my job was to teach weather classes at COMET (Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training).

In 2012 I was given the opportunity to start up a new weather support group with the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) in Warrenton, VA at the ATCSSC (Air Traffic Control System Command Center). The ATCSCC is where the FAA identifies solutions to air traffic inefficiencies in the NAS (National Air Space) for the CONUS (Continental United State). Weather impacts are the biggest impact on Aviation with yearly losses over 20 billion dollars. My job was to help lower these inefficiencies/costs by providing weather impact briefings and forecasts in order to keep the air planes moving as safely and efficiently as possible.

I retired in 2022 and now am running Lake Anna Weather, LLC.