El Nino-Induced Rainfall Triggers Severe Flooding in Lake Anna Area, with Water Levels Soaring to Tenth Highest in Over 50 Years

January 10, 2024

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Yesterday’s rainfall event was another in a series that started in late November 2023. Most of the Lake Anna area has received 12-13” of rain in the past 6 weeks. El Nino is responsible for these systems and the rapid turnaround from severe drought to flooding in the Lake Anna Area. Another storm is expected to impact the area Friday afternoon into the overnight. Rainfall amounts will be lower, but there will be additional runoff.

Here is a link to a 12-hour radar loop over the region, from Tuesday morning into the evening

Most areas received 2.5-3.0” on Tuesday. Soils were already saturated from the previous storms, so much of this became runoff. The lake (measured at the dam) rose from 250.1’ above Mean Sea Level (MSL) to 251.2’ above MSL in 24 hours. The runoff, has slowed, but the bigger runoff basins are over the upper parts of the lake, so we could see additional rises through today.

Tuesday’s Rainfall:

North Anna River level, near Partlow (just below the dam):

When the lake rises above the preferred 250’ above MSL, water is let out through gates on the dam. This water goes into the North Anna River. There is a USGS river gauge just downstream of the dam and the reading over the past 24 hours shows an incredible rise from the lake releases and rainfall near the gauge. From Tuesday to Wednesday the river rose around 11.5’. It looks like the river is peaking around 18.5’ this afternoon, which is now the tenth highest over the past 50+ years. The highest was associated with rainfall/runoff from the remnants of Hurricane Agnes in 1972.

Historic Crests
(1) 36.32 ft on 06/22/1972
(2) 27.80 ft on 05/01/2014
(3) 26.24 ft on 06/27/1995
(4) 25.30 ft on 02/26/1979
(5) 22.05 ft on 03/30/1984
(6) 21.48 ft on 11/05/1985
(7) 21.48 ft on 11/28/1993
(8) 20.72 ft on 03/05/1993
(9) 18.77 ft on 12/08/2011
(10) 18.06 ft on 05/06/1989

The link to view current river data

Michael Eckert

I grew up an Air Force Brat. Traveled the country and lived in Georgia, Maine, New York, Hawaii and Oklahoma.

I fell in love with the weather in Oklahoma. My father was transferred to Tinker AFB in 1973. While in Temporary housing (a mobile home, which is the standard in Oklahoma) I experienced my first severe thunderstorm with strong winds and hail the size of baseballs. The next day I was in the base library looking up books on weather. The rest is history.

I graduated from the University of Oklahoma in 1983 with a Bachelor’s Degree in Meteorology. The first two years we took Calculus, Differential equations, Physics, Chemistry and Computer science classes with the Engineering Students. It was a grind. My degree is actually from the College of Engineering. The last 2-3 year’s focus was on Meteorology including Observational networks (Satellite, Radar, Surface), Physics, Thermodynamics, Dynamics, Synoptic, Winter Weather, Severe Weather and Climatology.

My first job out of college was with a small forecasting company in Oklahoma City. I was immediately put on TV (OETA) and Radio (WKY) as their broadcast Meteorologist. After two years in broadcasting, I decided to pursue the National Weather Service route and got a position in Toledo, OH as an intern. After a couple of years, I was promoted to a forecaster position at the Cleveland Forecast office. I quickly moved into the Weather Preparedness position and was responsible for all the preparedness activities in the state of Ohio.

In 1992 I decided to pursue other forecast opportunities and moved to the Meteorological Operations Division of the National Meteorological Center in Washington, DC. This group is now called WPC (Weather Prediction Center). There I fine-tuned my forecasting of Synoptic Weather with my focus on Heavy Convective Rainfall and Winter Storms, under the supervision of Dr. Louis Uccellini. He has written several books on East Coast Winter storms. I was promoted to a Senior Branch Forecast position during my tenure at MOD. Part of my job was to teach weather classes at COMET (Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training).

In 2012 I was given the opportunity to start up a new weather support group with the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) in Warrenton, VA at the ATCSSC (Air Traffic Control System Command Center). The ATCSCC is where the FAA identifies solutions to air traffic inefficiencies in the NAS (National Air Space) for the CONUS (Continental United State). Weather impacts are the biggest impact on Aviation with yearly losses over 20 billion dollars. My job was to help lower these inefficiencies/costs by providing weather impact briefings and forecasts in order to keep the air planes moving as safely and efficiently as possible.

I retired in 2022 and now am running Lake Anna Weather, LLC.